Fears of unrest are mounting in Georgia as the ex-Soviet republic's opposition prepares to launch a wave of protests next month aimed at toppling President Mikhail Saakashvili.
A grenade attack on a police car, the arrests of several opposition supporters on weapons charges and allegations of plots for armed attacks have highlighted the dangers in the run-up to the April 9 launch of protests.
Opposition leaders are warning the government may be preparing to crack down on protesters in a repeat of violence in November 2007 that saw riot police firing tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets into crowds of thousands.
"Tensions are very high. This is a difficult and possibly dangerous time for Georgia," political analyst Alexander Rondeli said.
A coalition of opposition groups has been gearing up for months to launch the demonstrations on the 20th anniversary of a Soviet crackdown on protesters that left 20 dead. They have vowed to continue rallies until Saakashvili resigns and calls early elections.
Opposition to Saakashvili has been growing since Georgia's war with Russia last year, with many, including some top former allies, accusing the president of mishandling the conflict. He has steadfastly refused to resign, saying it would throw the country into turmoil.
Georgia has suffered through bouts of civil unrest since gaining its independence with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and many here fear the protests could spark further violence.
Earlier this month police said anti-government protesters had used a hand grenade to blow up a police car after an opposition rally.
This week nine members of a leading opposition party, the Democratic Movement-United Georgia led by former parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze, were arrested on charges of trying to buy automatic weapons. In a video released Wednesday, one of the men is shown discussing the possibility of the opposition using firearms and gathering hundreds of armed supporters.
Two other members of a marginal opposition group were also detained after police recorded them telling arms dealers they were seeking weapons to launch attacks and seize government buildings during the protests.
"There is a real potential for provocations, of people throwing hand grenades or shooting at somebody" Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said. "The biggest danger is not from organized violence, but from an isolated person doing something crazy."
Opposition leaders say the threat is not from within their ranks, but from the government cracking down on protesters.
"The special forces are already training...we don't exclude that the government will use violence," said Zviad Dzidziguri, a leader of the opposition Conservative Party, one of the main organizers of the protest.
He accused the government of seeking to "spread fear" to keep people from attending the protests and said the authorities could carry out some sort of attack during the protests to justify a crackdown.
Source: Dowjones Business News